The Changing Faces of the Ballot Box
Opinion by Adelaide Baran
Both candidates, Trump and Harris, have put in the work over the past four months. They have campaigned, debated, put out ads, and participated in interviews. They have each had time to make their case to American voters and appeal to the masses. On November 5th, we will get to see whose efforts have taken them to victory and who has acquired the necessary voters to take them to 270 electoral votes.
It is safe to call this election a very close one. In polling, both candidates have taken their turn at the top, and in swing states, the candidates are within 3-4 points of each other. This election is really a toss up—anyone can win.
Part of what makes this election so interesting, and in my opinion, so close, is that neither of the candidates are really a “challenger.” In many elections, there is the old candidate, who is perhaps an incumbent, or a VP of the prior administration, and then there is the challenger candidate, who’s campaigning for a different future. Donald Trump is a semi-incumbent. Americans know what a Donald Trump presidency looks like. When he first ran in 2016, part of the reason he won was his “disruptor” role in the election. He was not a politician and that worked to his advantage. Now, though, he is a politician, especially to the younger generation, who does not really know Donald Trump as a celebrity. As for Kamala Harris, she is heavily marketing herself as a challenger and a change for the future, but in reality, she is an incumbent as well. She was a key leader in the past administration. It is highly subjective to the individual voter or group of voters as to who they see to represent more of a change for the future.
The lack of a challenger figure in this election is only one of the unique characteristics of this election. Polling related to this presidential election also shows that certain demographics are going to decide this election, and some of those demographics are veering away from which way they have historically voted.
One very split demographic in this election is gender, with this being the third election in a row with a predicted gender gap of 25 points. Harris is winning 56% of women, where Trump is winning 40%. This is likely due to the abortion issue and it may also be attributed to the fact that Harris is a woman, and so women voters may feel she represents them better. While Harris is winning women, she is underperforming Biden’s numbers with men overall. Trump is doing much better with men, especially young men, which leads to the second demographic in the election, which is age.
Democrats are underperforming among young people, and a reason may be their weakness with young men, who are becoming increasingly more Republican. Trump is leading young men with 58% of the vote to Harris who has just 38%. Interestingly, a NYT/Sienna poll found that the number one predictor that a young man would support Trump is if they were of North African or Middle Eastern descent. This may suggest a broader support for Trump’s policies regarding Israel and Gaza, or just a dislike of Harris’s policies regarding that topic. The number two predictor of if a young man would support Trump is if they held a favorable view of the podcaster Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan openly supported RFK Jr. for president before he dropped out of the election and endorsed Donald Trump. It is unknown if Rogan himself is now supporting Trump. Now, the big question regarding young male voters and many voters by enlarge is if they will show up to vote. Young people have one of the worst voter turnout rates by age. This means their support may not be a great indicator of a voting base that will allow one of the candidates to win the election.
The issue of voter turnout is still a big one in this election. There are different levels of propensity among voters. High propensity voters, classified as those who have participated in 4/4 of the last elections, have favored Democrats and a large portion of them (around 60%) will break for Harris. As for Donald Trump, he has historically pulled lower propensity voters. These voters are those who don’t generally vote and in some ways, seem apathetic towards politics. This was another thing that allowed him to win in 2016.
Another group with low voter turnout is non-white voters. In 2020, 71% of white people voted where 58% of non white people voted. This has worked for Republicans in the past because white voters favor GOP candidates, where black voters overwhelmingly support Democrats. Hispanic voters favor Democrats, but in 2020, more voted for Trump than in 2018. As for Asian voters, 68% voted for Democrats in the 2022 election and 32% voted for Republicans.
A major indicator of which way someone will vote is education level. College graduates are much more likely to vote Democrat and non college educated voters are much more likely to vote Republican. A major reason for that is wealth disparity. College educated voters own 3/4 of the wealth in the United States, despite making up only 40% of the population. As the Republican party, and especially the Trump campaign has become increasingly more populist and representative of the working class, it has attracted voters who feel as though the economic system is not working for the middle and lower classes.
The last major demographic for Democrats is urban voters. People who live in cities are significantly more likely to vote Democrat than Republican. Republicans, on the other hand, significantly win suburban voters.
All of these demographic splits relate significantly to who will likely win the election. If a candidate’s party has traditionally won a sector and is currently underperforming in that area, they are more likely to lose. Of course, it takes a lot to lose an election, just as it takes a lot to win one. This election is likely going to be close right until the end, but watching shifts such as those with young male voters or women voters overall, can give voters a clue as to who may win out in the 2024 election.