The Gaza Ceasefire Deal

Piece by Max Seigl

Photo: Yahoo

On October 7th, 2023, the extremist Islamic terrorist group Hamas made an unprecedented assault upon the State of Israel with over 1,000 Israelis killed and over 200 hostages abducted to Gaza. The response was an intense Israeli military assault on the group in the Gaza Strip with over 60,000 lives lost in the region and a humanitarian catastrophe of such enormity.

In an attempt to end the bloodshed, on January 15th, 2025, a ceasefire program written by former President Joe Biden was implemented. The ceasefire came into effect on January 19th, a day before  Donald Trump's presidential inauguration. The agreement is outlined in the format of a three-stage intervention to provide immediate relief as well as enduring resolution of the conflict.

On stage one, which will last for 42 days, a complete fighting stop occurred. Part of this initial phase included releasing 33 Israeli hostages for 1,900 Palestinian inmates in Israeli prisons. The Israeli army also promised to withdraw its soldiers from the cities, allowing the displaced Gazans to regain their homes. Hundreds of aid convoys were also needed to enter Gaza daily in this phase. Humanitarian relief has flowed in large numbers, and the goal of 600 trucks per day has often been surpassed, with up to 630 trucks coming daily on occasion. The trucks are carrying food, medicine, and other essential goods to fill gaps that have beset the population. With over a million Gazans still displaced in the Strip, this ceasefire offers a temporary opportunity for their return, but the damage to infrastructure and psychological effects of war remain daunting barriers.

Gaza's health system, stretched to the breaking point throughout the conflict, is also seeing some relief. Local authorities are taking advantage of this time to reconstruct medical centers, resupply equipment and medicine, and treat the thousands of injured and sick residents. Despite this, however, it is a herculean task to construct a functioning healthcare system, one which will require sustained effort and assistance from outside.

The political side of the ceasefire is still extremely complicated. In his first days after taking office, President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the future of Gaza. Breaking from the vision of the Biden administration, Trump outlined a radically different path to peace. Rather than returning control of Gaza to the Palestinians, Trump suggested the United States take ownership of the area and turn it into what he called a "Riviera of the Middle East." His plan is to resettle the two million Palestinians currently in Gaza in neighboring countries such as Egypt and Jordan, with the promise of massive U.S. investment in infrastructure and economic development.

This proposal has been met with strong worldwide condemnation. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and other human rights organizations have labeled it an attempt at "ethnic cleansing," cautioning that forced eviction would violate international law and exacerbate tensions in the region. Jordanian and Egyptian officials publicly dismissed the idea of their participation, citing that Gaza should remain Palestinian land and its inhabitants must be granted the right to return and rebuild their homes. American leaders already threatened reprisal against both countries in the form of halting foreign aid if cooperation remains on the cards.

Despite worldwide condemnation, Netanyahu has backed Trump's proposal as a long-term strategy to end the Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip. Such a backing poses questions about the prospects of sustaining the ceasefire. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has seconded this view, reaffirming that Israel plans to eradicate Hamas altogether. Given the fact that the organization continues to have a very strong presence in Gaza, this type of rhetoric and military designs raise questions as to whether or not the ceasefire can actually hold.

The ceasefire is already strained. A Palestinian police officer and two other colleagues were killed by an Israeli airstrike on February 16th in Rafah, a Gaza city in the south. The Interior Ministry of Gaza condemned the strike and called for immediate condemnation by international mediators and argued that police officers are part of the civilian body to be protected under the terms of the ceasefire. Israel responded by asserting that the officers were approaching Israeli soldiers in the region, using the incident to reiterate demands for a safe buffer zone between Israeli soldiers and Palestinians.

Hamas responded by announcing a pause to the release of Israeli hostages until humanitarian rules were followed by Israeli soldiers. This action is a dangerous escalation because hostage exchanges were one of the main points of the ceasefire agreement. The Israeli government, in turn, has threatened to deploy military units into Gaza to rescue the final hostages, currently being held captive for over 500 days. Meanwhile, orders for withdrawal for certain Israeli troops have been reversed, once more fueling speculation that the ceasefire is very unstable.

With the ceasefire now two months old, prospects remain uncertain. Phase two of the bargain, to be initiated 16 days into phase one, pledges a conclusive cease-fire and full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. In a quid pro quo, Hamas will release the other living captives it has been holding hostage, while Israel releases other Palestinian detainees. The final stage is the return of the bodies of deceased hostages and the formal resumption of Gaza's rebuilding.

Success of this carefully developed plan is critically dependent on the willingness of both parties to confine, but the high degree of mistrust and ongoing provocations make direct negotiations dangerous. The constant efforts of international mediators like Qatar and Egypt to keep the ceasefire process moving are often ignored by the political ambitions of powerful leaders like Netanyahu, Trump, and Hamas leaders.

The ceasefire is a chance to find peace after so much pain and loss. For the people of Israel and Gaza, it means everything. Each quiet day brings hope, but every broken promise brings fear. The world watches, knowing this fragile peace could shape the future for years to come.