The Israel-Hamas War: Past, Present, and Future

Piece by Ryan Spacek

October 7, 2024 marked the first anniversary of the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. As of that point, over 40,000 people (mostly Palestinian) have been killed in the conflict and over a million people have been displaced. The war, and events in the Middle East in general, will be very important this election in the US. But how did these conflicts start? How are they really going?

Brief History of Israel and Palestine

A Jewish state came up as a concept because of the Zionist movement, which started in the late 1800s and continued until the formation of Israel. The Zionists wanted to create a nation built upon the religion of Judaism based on the biblical Promised Land in the region of Palestine. After the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in WWI, the British mostly controlled the region of Palestine, which at that time was modern-day Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. Because of the Zionist movement, many European Jews migrated to British Palestine, causing conflict with the Arab population there. 

After WWII, the United Nations decided to partition British Palestine into two nations: the Jewish population would get Israel and the Arab population would get Palestine. Israel was bigger than Palestine despite having less people, and the Arabs in Palestine and the surrounding countries were unhappy with the situation. After the State of Israel was proclaimed on May 14, 1948 supported by the US and other UN members, a group of Arab states rejected the partition of Palestine and declared war on Israel. Despite being attacked by seven countries, Israel still won. After the creation of Israel, many Arabs were expelled from the country, often forced out with nothing. Similar situations occurred with Jews living in Arab countries. Conflict continued as Arab nations attacked Israel multiple times and failed, most notably in the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War. Tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbors continued to grow, with both minor and major conflicts breaking out quite often, taking us up to the start of the Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent war, which still continues to this day. 

War Update: Fall 2024

A lot has changed in the war, especially in the recent months. An Israeli invasion of Lebanon, multiple devastating airstrikes, and the death of the Hamas leader are just some of the things that have had an impact.

First, the airstrikes. Military aircraft have played a major role in the war so far, and Israel has been sending even more planes to attack Gaza and the West Bank this fall. This is a tactic that has caused a lot of damage to the land. Hamas does not have any planes capable of airstrikes, but they do have rockets that they can launch at Israel. Just this month, hundreds of civilians and soldiers have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. 

On October 1, the Israeli Defense Force (Israel’s military) announced that they would be conducting a “limited, localized” ground invasion into southern Lebanon to fight the Islamic militant and terrorist group Hezbollah, who are hostile towards Israel. Israeli airstrikes and clashes with Hezbollah soldiers have had a high death toll, and Hezbollah leaders have expressed a desire to expand their attacks on Israel’s military. 

On October 16, Israeli troops killed and identified Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Israel’s most wanted man. Soldiers identified three Hamas militants running into a building, which they then fired a shell at. All three Hamas members were killed, and Sinwar was found buried in rubble with a large wound and wearing a military vest, carrying grenades and 40,000 Israeli shekels (around $11,000). Sinwar is just the most recent in a string of Hamas senior figures that Israel has eliminated in the past few months, but he is certainly the most important. President Joe Biden said that Sinwar’s death opens up the possibility of a diplomatic or political settlement to end the war, but Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu stated that even though Israel had “settled its account” with the man behind the beginning of the war, “the task before us is not yet complete” implying that he will continue the war.

External Influences: Lebanon, Iran, and the West

Many other countries have had an impact on the war. Hamas is currently supported mostly by Islamic militant groups based throughout the Middle East (like Hezbollah and the Islamic Resistance) as well as Iran. Israel is currently supported by the US and its Western allies, notably the UK, France, and Germany. 

Even before the Israeli invasion of Lebanon to fight against Hezbollah and the other Hamas-supporting groups there, Lebanon has served as a base for those groups to attack Israel. Hezbollah especially has a significant presence in the Lebanese government and has a military larger than that of Lebanon’s. This means that Lebanon is completely connected to Hezbollah, and therefore the war. However, other members of the Lebanese government are petitioning for aid and a ceasefire in the war. 

Iran has been supporting both Hamas and Hezbollah throughout the conflict, but on October 1, they intervened directly, firing missiles at Israel in two waves. Israel confirmed that over 100 missiles were fired by Iran. They are now in open conflict with each other. 

The US and its Western allies are currently supporting Israel, providing weapons and funding. Recently, however, they have been pressuring Israel to make an effort to stop the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, threatening to remove aid. They are also looking for ways to end the war or at least call a ceasefire after Sinwar’s death. 

How will this affect the election?

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president, has said that she believes that Israel has a right to defend itself and she will ensure that they are able to do so, while still expressing a desire to end the war through diplomatic negotiations. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has not been very specific about what his approach would be. He only says that he supports Netanyahu and Israel and that if he is reelected the relationship between the US and Israel will be stronger than ever. 

All of that said, the one major effect this has is moving younger voters and Muslim voters away from the pro-Israel mainstream candidates. Many Muslim voters especially are choosing to either support alternate parties (like the Green Party or the Libertarians) or not vote in the election as a form of protest, even though they can have a major potential impact, especially in the swing states. Many Muslims generally vote for the Democratic candidate, so this “mass protest” will likely lower the number of votes for Harris. Whatever happens, the situation in the Middle East will have an impact on elections and American politics in general for the foreseeable future.